A falling portfolio always needs a larger gain to get back to even. See exactly how large — and why the math gets brutal fast.
drawdown needs a full 100% gain just to break even — you must double your remaining money.
drawdown needs a 42.9% gain to recover — not 30%. The math is always asymmetric.
drawdown needs an 11.1% gain to recover — uncomfortable but achievable within a year.
| Drawdown | Return to break even | Severity | What it takes |
|---|
The formula is simple: if your portfolio falls by D%, the return needed to recover is D ÷ (100 − D) × 100. A 50% fall means you are working from a base that is half what it was — so a 50% gain on that smaller base only gets you back to 75% of where you started. You need a full 100% gain on the reduced base to return to the original value.
This asymmetry is why deep drawdowns are so dangerous — and why understanding your actual drawdown history matters more than knowing your average return.
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